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Flood Modeling and Emergency Planning for Dam Failure: Projections in Calabria (Italy)

Received: 30 July 2024
Published: 30 September 2024

Abstract

A dam is a hydraulic structure made of natural materials, such as earth, or artificial ones, such as concrete, whose main function is to block a watercourse to create an artificial basin for multiple purposes, including irrigation, energy production, flow regulation, and protection. These structures allow for the storage of large quantities of water, which, in the event of a collapse, can have devastating effects on human lives and the surrounding territory. Therefore, regulations prescribe strict safety checks and provide operational guidelines for civil protection activities and emergency plans. Through several case studies in Calabria, a region of southern Italy, this paper analyzes Italian regulations concerning scenarios in which it is necessary to safely empty the reservoir behind the dam following an earthquake and to enable the consequent civil protection activities and emergency planning. The paper also describes the coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling carried out using HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS, respectively, to define three thresholds for each dam in accordance with Italian regulations. These thresholds are: the maximum flow rate for emptying dams located within the hydraulic pertinence areas downstream; the attention flow rate for dam discharge, beyond which hydraulic criticalities may occur; and incremental thresholds that identify scenarios with greater hydraulic criticalities.

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